By C. Peter Timmer
The gradually diminishing position of agriculture on the earth economy_a mostly unperceived, poorly understood, yet profound change_is as transformational for developmental fiscal notion as gravity has been for physics. C. Peter Timmer argues that policymakers who forget about this basic shift probability mismanaging their fiscal improvement guidelines, with serious results. The 'structural transformation' of constructing economies has 4 major beneficial properties: a falling percentage of agriculture in monetary output and employment; a emerging proportion of city financial job in and smooth companies; the migration of rural staff to city settings; and a demographic transition in beginning and loss of life charges that usually ends up in a spurt in inhabitants progress ahead of a brand new equilibrium is reached. even though all constructing economies adventure those transitions, dealing with the ensuing political effects has been a huge problem for policymakers over the last half-century. attempting to cease the structural transformation easily doesn't paintings. Bolstering the ability of the bad to learn from swap, even though, does. Investments in human assets, for example_especially in schooling and health_are the main promising methods to easing the transitions of a constructing countryOs structural transformation. Such concepts require major public-sector assets and coverage help to augment rural productiveness and depend upon political approaches which are delicate to the pressures generated by means of the structural transformation. constructing effective coverage mechanisms to lead constructing economies in the course of the structural transformation might be a concern of global governments within the twenty-first century. This monograph, a global with out Agriculture, was once the 2007 Henry Wendt Lecture, brought on the American company Institute in Washington, D.C. on October 30, 2007. The Wendt Lecture is introduced every year by means of a pupil who has made significant contributions to our figuring out of the trendy phenomenon of globalization and its effects for social welfare, govt coverage, and the growth of liberal political associations.
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Additional info for A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series)
4 Naturally, the policy conclusions of the two camps are totally different. Their positions turn fundamentally on the question of whether it is possible to skip the stage of agricultural modernization in the structural transformation (as in the “jump strategy” illustrated in figure 3-1). “New” Initial Conditions The initial success of the Green Revolution (which sparked agriculture as the engine of pro-poor economic growth in the 1960s) was in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Seemingly difficult initial conditions— heavy population pressures against available arable land, poorly educated and overwhelmingly rural populations, deep and widespread poverty—turned out to be precisely what made investments in new agricultural technology and rural infrastructure highly profitable.
Part of the resurgence is just fashionable—the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals, with their focus on poverty, have captured donor attention, and most of the very poor still live in rural areas. But part comes with a new realization that agriculture is the “greenest” of industries and the major pathway for putting solar energy to effective economic use. ) The past decade has brought a quiet revolution in the understanding of determinants of poverty and the mechanisms for reducing it in a sustainable fashion.
That the early experiences for these advanced countries were much more similar to the international growth patterns of the 1960s and 1970s than to those of the past several decades. Indeed, virtually the entire growth experience of modern developed countries has been spent on the convergent path of sectoral labor productivity. This is in sharp contrast to currently developing countries, which are mostly at income levels per capita where sectoral labor productivity is diverging. Divergent Paths There are two ways to think about individual country experiences in the context of the regular patterns of the structural transformation.
A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspectives (Henry Wendt Lecture Series) by C. Peter Timmer
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